Bitcoin’s apparent demand has sunk to its lowest level this year, dipping into negative territory on March 13, according to analytics firm CryptoQuant. The decline, detailed in a report released today, reflects a sharp pullback in investor appetite for the world’s largest cryptocurrency amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds. As traders shift toward safer assets like cash and government bonds, Bitcoin’s price has followed suit, sliding over 22% from its 2024 peak of $109,000 to hover below $85,000.
CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric, which tracks the difference between newly mined Bitcoin and the movement of coins dormant for over a year, had been positive since September 2024, peaking in December before trending downward. The shift to negative demand began in early March, accelerating as fears of a prolonged trade war, geopolitical unrest, and stubborn inflation—still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—rattled markets. “Demand has been weakening since December and continues to decline,” wrote CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost in the report. “This suggests investors are growing more cautious and may be favoring less risky assets.”
The numbers paint a stark picture. Bitcoin’s price has struggled to hold above its 200-day exponential moving average since March 9, a technical threshold it briefly breached in February. Volatility has spiked, with the Average True Range (ATR) climbing above 5,035, indicating wild price swings as macroeconomic uncertainty grips traders. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland warned this week that Bitcoin must close above $89,000 on the weekly chart to avoid a deeper drop toward $69,000—a level last seen in late 2024 before its rally to six figures.
The downturn contrasts with earlier optimism tied to President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies, including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve order signed March 6. That initiative, which stocks the reserve with seized assets rather than new purchases, initially fueled hopes of sustained demand. Yet, recent market dynamics suggest a broader retreat from risk. Posts on X from users like @cryptoquant_com and @cryptomone_y echoed CryptoQuant’s findings, noting investor hesitancy as a driving force behind the slump.
A Broader Context
Bitcoin’s faltering demand arrives as the U.S. economy shows signs of strain. The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDP forecast, updated March 10, projects a 2.4% contraction for Q1 2025—the weakest since the pandemic—amplifying recession fears. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 12-month recession odds to 20%, citing tariff pressures and softening consumer confidence. Against this backdrop, traditional safe havens have gained traction, sapping momentum from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
The crypto market isn’t alone in feeling the pinch. Equities logged their worst week since Trump’s November 2024 election, with investors rattled by his trade policy pivots. Bitcoin, often touted as “digital gold,” has yet to prove its mettle as a hedge in this climate. Its correlation with stocks, while weakened since 2022, remains a factor, and the absence of fresh institutional buying—evident in the negative demand metric—has left it vulnerable.
What’s Behind the Drop?
CryptoQuant’s data points to a drying up of accumulation. Where late 2024 saw long-term holders and institutions absorbing supply, March 2025 shows a reversal. The report suggests that profit-taking from Bitcoin’s $100,000 milestone in November 2024, combined with macro jitters, has stalled momentum. Miners, meanwhile, continue adding roughly 3.125 BTC per block post the April 2024 halving, but this issuance now outpaces demand, flipping the metric negative.
Analysts see technical warning signs too. Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim its 200-day EMA, coupled with an RSI stuck in neutral territory (30-70), hints at indecision. “The market’s grappling with big-picture factors,” said Hyland in a recent video analysis. “We need a catalyst—either a price break or policy shift—to turn this around.”
Looking Ahead
The slump raises questions about Bitcoin’s near-term path. CryptoQuant’s Darkfost noted that past periods of negative demand often preceded consolidation or sharper corrections, though no timeline was offered. If recession fears deepen, safe-haven flows could further depress risk assets, testing Bitcoin’s $69,000 support. Conversely, a stabilization in macro conditions—or a surprise boost from Trump’s crypto agenda—might reignite buying.
For now, the market watches warily. The Senate’s GENIUS Act, which cleared committee this week, promises stablecoin clarity, but its impact on broader crypto demand remains uncertain. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund hitting $1 billion highlights tokenized asset growth, yet Bitcoin’s struggle suggests a divergence in investor priorities.
Disclaimer: TrueToCrypto.com (the “Website”) is for general informational purposes only and is obtained from independent sources that are believed to be reliable. However, TrueToCrypto.com, its owners, affiliates, officers, employees, and agents (collectively, “We,” “Us,” or “Our”) make no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, reliability, or suitability of the information contained on or accessed through this Website. Further read Disclaimer.
