Bernstein, a prominent research and brokerage firm, has laid out an ambitious bull case for Strategy, the Bitcoin treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy, forecasting that it could double its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings to 1 million coins by 2033. Unveiled on March 26, 2025, this projection hinges on a sustained crypto bull market and favorable capital conditions, potentially positioning Strategy as a dominant force in institutional Bitcoin adoption. With BTC trading at $86,700 and a market cap nearing $1.7 trillion, the scenario underscores a seismic shift in corporate crypto strategies.
Strategy’s current stash stands at 506,137 BTC, worth over $44 billion, following a $584.1 million purchase of 6,911 BTC between March 17 and 23, 2025. This haul, acquired at an average price of $84,529 per coin, reflects the firm’s aggressive capital-raising tactics—$23 billion since October 2024 via stock and preferred share sales. Bernstein’s analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, see this as just the beginning. Their bull case envisions Strategy amassing 5.8% of Bitcoin’s 19.8 million circulating supply, up from 2.5% today, driven by a price trajectory hitting $200,000 by year-end 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033.
The firm’s valuation model blends Strategy’s software business—pegged at a 2x EV/sales multiple—with a 55% premium on its Bitcoin treasury, reflecting historical trends since its 2020 pivot to BTC. Under this rosy scenario, Strategy’s debt could balloon to $100 billion from $11 billion, with equity proceeds reaching $84 billion, fueled by easier markets and lower rates. Analysts argue Strategy has tapped 5% of global equity capital raised in 2024, showcasing its knack for seizing Bitcoin-friendly conditions. Earnings per share could leap to $207, up from prior estimates of $67.50, thanks to fair-value gains on a larger BTC hoard.
But it’s not all smooth sailing. Bernstein’s base case tempers this to 4% of supply with $51 billion in debt, while a bear case warns of stagnation at 2.6% if a post-2025 bear market hits. A $200,000 peak this year followed by an elongated downturn could force Strategy to liquidate BTC to cover out-of-the-money convertibles and dividends, analysts caution. Bitcoin’s 16% drop in 30 days earlier this year and whale moves—like 3,000 BTC to exchanges on March 23—highlight volatility risks.
Market reaction was swift. Strategy’s stock (MSTR) rose 4% to $348.91 in after-hours trading on March 25, building on a 75% upside target of $600 set by Bernstein. Bitcoin held steady at $86,700, with $48 billion in 24-hour volume reflecting robust liquidity. Social media buzzed, with X posts amplifying the 1 million BTC vision as a sign of corporate crypto dominance. Yet, skeptics question scalability—can Strategy sustain such debt and equity raises without spooking investors?
For now, Bernstein’s bull case paints Strategy as a Bitcoin juggernaut, potentially holding 5% of all BTC ever mined. Whether it hits 1 million coins or stumbles in a bearish turn, this forecast underscores crypto’s growing clout in corporate treasuries.
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