Key Highlights
- $460 Billion Market Cap Boost: Sygnum Bank’s Katalin Tischhauser forecasts that a U.S. crypto reserve could increase Bitcoin’s market cap by $460 billion—25%—driven by a 20x multiplier effect from each $1 billion in reserve purchases, per March 6, 2025, analysis.
- Demand Shock Potential: With Bitcoin’s liquid supply tight, Tischhauser highlights that $1 billion in inflows could add $20 billion to its market cap, fueled by government buys and institutional follow-ons.
- Trump’s Plan in Focus: Trump’s March 2 pledge for a crypto stockpile, including Bitcoin and altcoins, underpins Sygnum’s outlook, though low probability and legal hurdles persist ahead of the White House Crypto Summit on March 7.
A U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve could drive Bitcoin’s market capitalization up by approximately $460 billion—a 25% increase—according to Katalin Tischhauser, head of research at Sygnum Bank. Speaking to Cointelegraph on March 6, 2025, Tischhauser outlined how such a reserve, backed by President Donald Trump’s recent commitment, might trigger a multibillion-dollar buying surge, amplifying Bitcoin’s value through a significant multiplier effect. The projection, detailed in Sygnum’s Crypto Market Outlook 2025 report, underscores the asset’s sensitivity to institutional and governmental inflows given its limited liquid supply.
Tischhauser explained that Bitcoin’s price reacts strongly to capital injections, with every $1 billion in net inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) historically lifting its spot price by 3-6%. A strategic reserve, she argued, could escalate this dynamic further. In a February 6 interview with The Block, she estimated that each $1 billion of reserve purchases could spark a 20x multiplier effect, adding up to $20 billion to Bitcoin’s market cap per billion invested. “Because the liquid supply of Bitcoin is very small, larger inflows cause upward price shocks,” she said, attributing this to a “demand shock” where buying outpaces available supply.
The concept gained traction after Trump’s March 2 announcement on Truth Social, where he reaffirmed plans for a national crypto stockpile including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, and Cardano. Initially proposed in July 2024 alongside Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act—which suggested a Treasury-led reserve of 1 million BTC—the idea has stirred markets. Crypto prices surged post-announcement, with Bitcoin climbing briefly, only to retreat later that week amid macroeconomic unease and trade war fears. Sygnum’s report suggests that even a modest federal or state-led purchase could ignite another wave of institutional allocations, amplifying the effect.
Yet, Tischhauser cautioned that the market currently sees a “relatively low probability” of this reserve materializing due to legal hurdles and muddled messaging. “Any positive surprise would be bullish for Bitcoin’s price,” she noted, highlighting the confusion around labeling it a “strategic reserve” versus a broader government investment in crypto. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has hinted at more clarity during the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, suggesting Bitcoin would hold a “special status” among the included tokens. “That level of support from the administration is bullish, but the term ‘strategic reserve’ has created uncertainty,” Tischhauser added.
The multiplier effect isn’t new. Sygnum’s analysis builds on 2024 trends, where institutional ETF inflows drove outsized price gains. Tischhauser told The Block that a $1 billion reserve buy could balloon Bitcoin’s market cap by $20 billion, fueled not just by direct purchases but by a “market stampede” from state governments, institutional investors, and corporate treasuries. She also pointed to rising stablecoin market caps as a signal of impending crypto inflows, reinforcing the potential for demand to outstrip supply.
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